tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:05 → IAD 07:31UA 3656 · flown by Republic 1h 04m Dulles IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 8h 14m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 2h 36m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 10h 04m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:38 → IAH 18:46UA 1794 3h 13m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 11h 27m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:40 → DEN 09:55UA 2154 2h 30m Denver DEN 12:25 → SFO 14:09UA 1450 9h 29m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 50m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 02m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → BOS 07:15DL 5852 · flown by Republic 2h 56m Boston BOS 10:11 → SFO 13:45DL 860 10h 45m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:05 → MSP 20:43DL 2015 57m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 8h 41m 72% 57%
UnitedDetails → LGA 17:25 → ORD 19:12UA 602 52m Chicago ORD 20:04 → SFO 22:57UA 1495 8h 32m 67% 49%
JetBlueDetails → LGA 16:29 → FLL 19:43B6 1171 1h 12m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → SFO 23:51B6 277 10h 22m 66% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON