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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 9h 01m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464 2h 45m Chicago MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752 9h 30m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 10h 53m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:40 → DEN 09:55UA 2154 1h 50m Denver DEN 11:45 → SJC 13:24UA 2808 8h 44m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 49m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:00 → IAH 08:44UA 2371 1h 16m Houston IAH 10:00 → SJC 12:03UA 1882 9h 03m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:00 → SJC 13:33AA 436 10h 03m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 17:25 → ORD 19:12UA 602 46m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 8h 18m 67% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON