tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:40 → DEN 09:55UA 2154 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 10h 17m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 54m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 11m Houston IAH 20:12 → SNA 21:45UA 2761 10h 45m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:00 → IAH 08:44UA 2371 3h 46m Houston IAH 12:30 → SNA 14:03UA 2780 11h 03m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 1h 30m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 00m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:20 → DEN 17:56UA 1729 2h 36m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 9h 41m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:28 → ORD 16:14UA 2199 3h 31m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 10h 51m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:23 → SNA 13:31AA 2684 10h 01m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LGA 16:25 → DEN 19:05WN 2456 1h 25m Denver DEN 20:30 → SNA 22:00WN 744 8h 35m 75% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON