tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 10:28, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2412 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:28 SRQ 13:33 14% 5% 17.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438 6h 13m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 8h 45m 100% 71%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 07:25 → BNA 08:50WN 2447 3h 00m Nashville BNA 11:50 → SRQ 14:45WN 677 7h 20m 100% 68%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822 2h 10m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 7h 51m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115 7h 54m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 7h 17m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 08:59 → SRQ 10:50AA 2693 4h 50m 95% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968 51m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 5h 52m 74% 50%
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:24 → MIA 21:48AA 716 1h 06m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 35m 68% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON