Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2531 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 2531 LGA 07:10 → TPA 10:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2845 LGA 16:00 → TPA 19:04 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2531 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	TPA 10:01	8%	4%	16.7%	89%
AA 2805 American Flight history →	LGA 08:26	TPA 11:21	13%	3%	16.7%	84%
DL 2106 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	TPA 15:28	15%	5%	17.2%	85%
DL 2195 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:40	TPA 13:28	17%	5%	17.1%	79%
DL 2404 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:39	TPA 18:54	27%	9%	17.2%	74%
DL 2433 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	TPA 22:15	36%	14%	16.7%	62%
AA 2845 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	TPA 19:04	37%	11%	17.3%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON