Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 5621 at 08:50, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5621 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:50	TVC 11:11	12%	3%	0.9%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 06:00 → BOS 07:20AA 4377 · flown by Republic	2h 50m Boston	BOS 10:10 → TVC 12:41AA 4516 · flown by Republic	6h 41m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	2h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:00 → BOS 11:23DL 5728 · flown by Republic	2h 43m Boston	BOS 14:06 → TVC 16:39DL 5821 · flown by Republic	6h 39m	99%	84%
American Details →	LGA 07:43 → DCA 09:13AA 4491 · flown by Republic	2h 07m Washington	DCA 11:20 → TVC 13:27AA 4138 · flown by Envoy	5h 44m	100%	83%
American Details →	LGA 07:55 → CLT 10:01AA 1023	3h 04m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → TVC 15:31AA 5628 · flown by PSA	7h 36m	99%	80%
American Details →	LGA 06:40 → ORD 08:26AA 462	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 09:35 → TVC 11:57AA 4190 · flown by Envoy	5h 17m	95%	80%
American Details →	LGA 09:44 → ORD 11:30AA 3100	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → TVC 16:17AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	6h 33m	98%	79%
United Details →	LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → TVC 13:13UA 2807	5h 52m	100%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON