tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 5h 29m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462 8h 13m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → VPS 12:29DL 3092 6h 30m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 00m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 13:00 → ATL 15:32DL 994 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 6h 42m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → VPS 16:21DL 3083 7h 21m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:05 → DAL 08:35WN 2341 1h 25m Dallas DAL 10:00 → VPS 11:55WN 205 6h 50m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 7h 29m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:59 → ATL 22:24DL 970 51m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 5h 30m 71% 61%
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:24 → MIA 21:48AA 716 1h 22m Miami MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy 6h 35m 73% 55%
AmericanDetails → LGA 17:01 → DFW 20:10AA 3103 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → VPS 23:08AA 1201 7h 07m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON