Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2476 at 12:35, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2476 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 12:35	AUS 17:30	19%	6%	0.5%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574	1h 30m Denver	DEN 12:40 → AUS 15:50WN 1476	5h 55m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	LGB 07:00 → SLC 09:53DL 3135	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	91%	77%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:50 → HOU 14:05WN 2483	1h 30m Houston	HOU 15:35 → AUS 16:30WN 352	5h 40m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	LGB 14:50 → DEN 18:05WN 2479	2h 45m Denver	DEN 20:50 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 1481	7h 20m	97%	72%
Southwest Details →	LGB 10:30 → BNA 16:30WN 165	1h 15m Nashville	BNA 17:45 → AUS 19:55WN 1900	7h 25m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:45 → DEN 13:00WN 4238	1h 30m Denver	DEN 14:30 → AUS 17:40WN 1478	5h 55m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	LGB 13:00 → SLC 15:49DL 1116	1h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	6h 30m	96%	71%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:50 → PHX 09:10WN 2491	2h 25m Phoenix	PHX 11:35 → AUS 15:50WN 3234	6h 00m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LGB 18:15 → LAS 19:25WN 2485	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 20:25 → AUS 01:10 +1WN 2186	4h 55m	63%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON