Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 165 at 10:30, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 165 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 10:30	BNA 16:30	15%	3%	0.5%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 19:00 → SMF 20:30WN 2507	2h 35m Sacramento	SMF 23:05 → BNA 05:10 +1WN 3759	8h 10m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	LGB 07:00 → SLC 09:53DL 3135	3h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205	9h 13m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	LGB 13:00 → SLC 15:49DL 1116	2h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317	8h 05m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 17:05 → BNA 18:35WN 2199	8h 20m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574	1h 45m Denver	DEN 12:55 → BNA 16:20WN 570	6h 25m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:50 → LAS 08:05WN 2484	3h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 11:40 → BNA 17:20WN 2189	8h 30m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:45 → DEN 13:00WN 4238	2h 30m Denver	DEN 15:30 → BNA 19:05WN 2597	7h 20m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:50 → PHX 09:10WN 2491	3h 35m Phoenix	PHX 12:45 → BNA 18:00WN 3237	8h 10m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON