Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:55, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGB 16:55 → SLC 19:58DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest	3h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:27 → BWI 06:00 +1DL 2079	10h 05m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	LGB 16:20 → SMF 17:45WN 4897	3h 55m Sacramento	SMF 21:40 → BWI 05:35 +1WN 3622	10h 15m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	LGB 16:30 → SJC 17:45WN 4307	3h 55m San Jose	SJC 21:40 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 621	10h 15m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	LGB 10:30 → BNA 16:30WN 165	4h 00m Nashville	BNA 20:30 → BWI 23:20WN 468	9h 50m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542	3h 15m Chicago	MDW 17:20 → BWI 20:15WN 4616	9h 00m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574	3h 25m Denver	DEN 14:35 → BWI 20:00WN 1045	9h 05m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:50 → HOU 14:05WN 2483	1h 20m Houston	HOU 15:25 → BWI 19:35WN 184	7h 45m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	LGB 18:15 → LAS 19:25WN 2485	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 1069	8h 30m	100%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LGB 19:55 → SLC 22:45WN 2229	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → BWI 05:40 +1WN 3735	6h 45m	57%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON