Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 264 at 09:30, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 264 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 09:30	DAL 14:30	14%	2%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 07:00 → SJC 08:10WN 2497	3h 30m San Jose	SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965	8h 05m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:50 → PHX 09:10WN 2491	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255	5h 30m	95%	78%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:05 → OAK 08:25WN 4947	2h 35m Oakland	OAK 11:00 → DAL 16:25WN 3014	7h 20m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:50 → LAS 08:05WN 2484	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 10:50 → DAL 15:40WN 2218	6h 50m	94%	76%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542	2h 15m Chicago	MDW 16:20 → DAL 18:35WN 2758	8h 20m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:45 → PHX 11:05WN 2492	2h 20m Phoenix	PHX 13:25 → DAL 17:50WN 3256	6h 05m	98%	74%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:50 → HOU 14:05WN 2483	1h 55m Houston	HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40	6h 20m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:45 → DEN 13:00WN 4238	2h 55m Denver	DEN 15:55 → DAL 19:00WN 1388	7h 15m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LGB 15:15 → LAS 16:25WN 2414	55m Las Vegas	LAS 17:20 → DAL 22:10WN 2220	4h 55m	59%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON