Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 08:15, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 15:25 → FLL 19:25WN 4899	8h 10m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	LGB 07:00 → SLC 09:53DL 3135	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745	7h 28m	91%	69%
Southwest Details →	LGB 12:35 → AUS 17:30WN 2476	1h 55m Austin	AUS 19:25 → FLL 23:15WN 300	7h 40m	97%	62%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574	3h 45m Denver	DEN 14:55 → FLL 20:50WN 4222	9h 55m	100%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON