Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:16, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 456 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 07:00	HNL 09:45	7%	2%	0.6%	97%
AS 869 Alaska Flight history →	LGB 07:00	HNL 09:50	13%	4%	0.9%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 07:05 → OAK 08:25WN 4947	3h 00m Oakland	OAK 11:25 → HNL 13:45WN 2879	9h 40m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	LGB 07:00 → SLC 09:53DL 3135	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	10h 19m	93%	76%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:50 → LAS 08:05WN 2484	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 09:15 → HNL 12:40WN 4109	8h 50m	94%	75%
Alaska Details →	LGB 08:16 → OGG 10:52AS 971	3h 08m Kahului	OGG 14:00 → HNL 14:42AS 1135	9h 26m	98%	68%
Southwest Details →	LGB 16:30 → SJC 17:45WN 4307	1h 05m San Jose	SJC 18:50 → HNL 21:20WN 3672	7h 50m	85%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON