Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2483 at 08:50, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2483 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 08:50	HOU 14:05	12%	4%	1.3%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 07:00 → SJC 08:10WN 2497	1h 10m San Jose	SJC 09:20 → HOU 15:10WN 3673	6h 10m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:55 → SMF 08:20WN 2503	2h 40m Sacramento	SMF 11:00 → HOU 16:45WN 3782	7h 50m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574	1h 20m Denver	DEN 12:30 → HOU 16:05WN 1544	6h 10m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:50 → PHX 09:10WN 2491	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 10:25 → HOU 15:05WN 3067	5h 15m	95%	72%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542	3h 35m Chicago	MDW 17:40 → HOU 20:15WN 2785	10h 00m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:30 → DAL 14:30WN 264	3h 00m Dallas	DAL 17:30 → HOU 18:45WN 45	7h 15m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:50 → LAS 08:05WN 2484	3h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 11:25 → HOU 16:35WN 4724	7h 45m	97%	70%
Southwest Details →	LGB 10:30 → BNA 16:30WN 165	2h 55m Nashville	BNA 19:25 → HOU 21:30WN 534	9h 00m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON