Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4542 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 08:15	MDW 14:05	10%	2%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 19:00 → SMF 20:30WN 2507	3h 20m Sacramento	SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45 +1WN 3802	8h 45m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:00 → SJC 08:10WN 2497	1h 55m San Jose	SJC 10:05 → MDW 16:10WN 4357	7h 10m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:55 → SMF 08:20WN 2503	3h 40m Sacramento	SMF 12:00 → MDW 17:55WN 3769	9h 00m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	LGB 19:50 → SJC 21:10WN 2500	1h 45m San Jose	SJC 22:55 → MDW 05:00 +1WN 3886	7h 10m	92%	79%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574	1h 50m Denver	DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601	6h 25m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:45 → DEN 13:00WN 4238	2h 50m Denver	DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603	7h 30m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:50 → LAS 08:05WN 2484	3h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 11:20 → MDW 16:50WN 4506	8h 00m	97%	75%
Southwest Details →	LGB 10:30 → BNA 16:30WN 165	3h 55m Nashville	BNA 20:25 → MDW 22:00WN 4286	9h 30m	100%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON