Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4947 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4947 LGB 07:05 → OAK 08:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2490 LGB 18:35 → OAK 19:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4947 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 07:05	OAK 08:25	4%	2%	0.6%	100%
WN 2488 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 11:55	OAK 13:10	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 4747 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 15:30	OAK 16:50	19%	6%	0.6%	66%
WN 2490 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 18:35	OAK 19:50	25%	6%	0.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON