Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 971 Alaska Flight history →	LGB 08:16	OGG 10:52	13%	4%	0.7%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 07:00 → HNL 09:45WN 456	2h 35m Honolulu	HNL 12:20 → OGG 13:10WN 1930	9h 10m	96%	84%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:50 → LAS 08:05WN 2484	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → OGG 12:35WN 1457	8h 45m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	LGB 07:00 → SLC 09:53DL 3135	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	10h 08m	93%	74%
Alaska Details →	LGB 07:00 → HNL 09:50AS 869	1h 54m Honolulu	HNL 11:44 → OGG 12:28AS 1096	8h 28m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON