Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2491 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2491 LGB 07:50 → PHX 09:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2494 LGB 20:15 → PHX 21:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2491 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 07:50	PHX 09:10	9%	3%	0.6%	96%
WN 2492 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 09:45	PHX 11:05	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 2493 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 16:10	PHX 17:30	30%	12%	0.6%	57%
WN 2494 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 20:15	PHX 21:50	31%	11%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON