Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3716 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3716 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 08:30	RNO 09:50	8%	3%	0.6%	100%
WN 2496 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 17:30	RNO 18:50	34%	9%	0.5%	38%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 07:00 → SJC 08:10WN 2497	50m San Jose	SJC 09:00 → RNO 10:05WN 4133	3h 05m	100%	95%
Delta Details →	LGB 16:55 → SLC 19:58DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607	6h 52m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:50 → LAS 08:05WN 2484	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 10:05 → RNO 11:30WN 1007	4h 40m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	LGB 07:00 → SLC 09:53DL 3135	1h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	5h 09m	93%	82%
Southwest Details →	LGB 10:10 → LAS 11:20WN 2234	1h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 13:15 → RNO 14:45WN 1221	4h 35m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	LGB 18:15 → LAS 19:25WN 2485	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → RNO 23:40WN 287	5h 25m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	LGB 13:25 → LAS 14:35WN 2334	3h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 17:45 → RNO 19:10WN 2012	5h 45m	100%	68%
Southwest Details →	LGB 15:15 → LAS 16:25WN 2414	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 19:10 → RNO 20:35WN 792	5h 20m	100%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LGB 20:15 → PHX 21:50WN 2494	55m Phoenix	PHX 22:45 → RNO 00:35 +1WN 656	4h 20m	62%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON