tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:55, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGB 16:55 → SLC 19:58DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 6h 57m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → LGB 07:00 → SLC 09:53DL 3135 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 5h 03m 93% 67%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 07:50 → PHX 09:10WN 2491 3h 20m Phoenix PHX 12:30 → SFO 14:25WN 3334 6h 35m 100% 62%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 18:15 → LAS 19:25WN 2485 3h 30m Las Vegas LAS 22:55 → SFO 00:35 +1WN 2784 6h 20m 100% 62%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 15:15 → LAS 16:25WN 2414 3h 40m Las Vegas LAS 20:05 → SFO 21:35WN 4397 6h 20m 100% 53%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 10:10 → LAS 11:20WN 2234 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 12:20 → SFO 13:55WN 2343 3h 45m 85% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LGB 20:15 → PHX 21:50WN 2494 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 22:50 → SFO 00:55 +1WN 1098 4h 40m 69% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON