Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3135 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 3135 LGB 07:00 → SLC 09:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2229 LGB 19:55 → SLC 22:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3135 Delta Flight history →	LGB 07:00	SLC 09:53	7%	4%	0.7%	96%
WN 2501 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 08:00	SLC 10:45	8%	2%	0.5%	96%
DL 3793 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LGB 16:55	SLC 19:58	10%	5%	0.5%	92%
DL 1116 Delta Flight history →	LGB 13:00	SLC 15:49	13%	5%	0.7%	87%
WN 2229 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 19:55	SLC 22:45	28%	8%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON