Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2503 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 2503 LGB 06:55 → SMF 08:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4897 LGB 16:20 → SMF 17:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2503 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 06:55	SMF 08:20	4%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 2504 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 09:55	SMF 11:20	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 2505 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 13:30	SMF 14:55	16%	5%	0.6%	88%
WN 2507 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 19:00	SMF 20:30	22%	7%	0.5%	78%
WN 4897 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 16:20	SMF 17:45	23%	9%	0.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON