Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2508 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2508 LIH 06:15 → HNL 06:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 1084 LIH 13:43 → HNL 14:22 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2508 Southwest Flight history →	LIH 06:15	HNL 06:55	4%	1%	0.9%	98%
WN 2509 Southwest Flight history →	LIH 08:20	HNL 09:05	5%	1%	0.8%	100%
AS 1004 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 06:00	HNL 06:36	9%	3%	2.3%	95%
AS 1014 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 07:12	HNL 07:48	11%	4%	2.3%	94%
AS 1024 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 08:22	HNL 08:59	13%	3%	2.1%	87%
WN 2734 Southwest Flight history →	LIH 11:50	HNL 12:35	14%	2%	0.9%	91%
WN 664 Southwest Flight history →	LIH 19:10	HNL 19:50	15%	3%	0.8%	98%worse than usual
WN 661 Southwest Flight history →	LIH 15:45	HNL 16:25	16%	3%	0.9%	93%
AS 1034 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:04	HNL 09:42	23%	5%	2.1%	88%worse than usual
AS 1144 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 18:16	HNL 18:53	24%	7%	1.8%	78%
AS 1044 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:46	HNL 10:24	26%	5%	2.2%	85%worse than usual
AS 1134 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:34	HNL 18:11	27%	8%	1.8%	77%
AS 1154 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 19:21	HNL 19:58	27%	7%	1.9%	78%
AS 1164 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 20:03	HNL 20:40	28%	8%	1.9%	78%
AS 1124 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 16:52	HNL 17:29	28%	9%	2.3%	77%
AS 1054 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 11:14	HNL 11:53	29%	5%	2.2%	84%worse than usual
AS 1174 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 20:45	HNL 21:23	30%	7%	1.8%	83%worse than usual
AS 1114 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 16:12	HNL 16:49	31%	9%	2.4%	72%
AS 1064 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 11:58	HNL 12:37	32%	5%	2.1%	77%
AS 1104 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 15:45	HNL 16:22	32%	9%	2.4%	64%
AS 1094 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 15:03	HNL 15:42	32%	9%	2.3%	53%
AS 1074 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:55	HNL 13:34	32%	5%	2.2%	79%worse than usual
AS 1084 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 13:43	HNL 14:22	33%	7%	2.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON