Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 1120 at 17:02, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1120 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:02	KOA 17:55	23%	6%	0.7%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LIH 06:15 → HNL 06:55WN 2508	2h 50m Honolulu	HNL 09:45 → KOA 10:40WN 675	4h 25m	100%	94%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 50m Honolulu	HNL 08:26 → KOA 09:12AS 1048	3h 12m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	LIH 07:12 → HNL 07:48AS 1014	1h 44m Honolulu	HNL 09:32 → KOA 10:19AS 1058	3h 07m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	LIH 15:45 → HNL 16:22AS 1104	2h 23m Honolulu	HNL 18:45 → KOA 19:31AS 1168	3h 46m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	2h 00m Honolulu	HNL 10:59 → KOA 11:46AS 1068	3h 24m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:30 → OGG 11:19AS 1150	2h 44m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	4h 09m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	2h 44m Kahului	OGG 13:00 → KOA 13:36AS 1030	4h 09m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:34 → HNL 18:11AS 1134	2h 52m Honolulu	HNL 21:03 → KOA 21:50AS 1178	4h 16m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 13:43 → HNL 14:22AS 1084	52m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	2h 18m	49%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON