Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 23% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2514 Southwest Flight history →	LIH 20:10	LAS 05:00	12%	2%	0.6%	98%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LIH 06:15 → HNL 06:55WN 2508	1h 05m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAS 16:50WN 1913	7h 35m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	LIH 08:20 → HNL 09:05WN 2509	2h 50m Honolulu	HNL 11:55 → LAS 20:45WN 1914	9h 25m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	LIH 19:10 → HNL 19:50WN 664	1h 05m Honolulu	HNL 20:55 → LAS 05:45 +1WN 1915	7h 35m	87%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 19:21 → HNL 19:58AS 1154	3h 22m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → LAS 08:03 +1AS 808	9h 42m	99%	76%
United Details →	LIH 13:01 → LAX 21:40UA 1296	1h 19m Los Angeles	LAX 22:59 → LAS 00:21 +1UA 2315	8h 20m	97%	73%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 19m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 39m	96%	71%
United Details →	LIH 13:17 → SFO 21:32UA 2111	1h 27m San Francisco	SFO 22:59 → LAS 00:46 +1UA 2839	8h 29m	97%	67%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	3h 01m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	9h 24m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	51m San Diego	SAN 20:15 → LAS 21:43AS 2274 · flown by Horizon	7h 57m	62%	20%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:58 → HNL 12:37AS 1064	48m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	7h 12m	23%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON