Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1612 at 22:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1612 LIH 22:00 → LAX 06:32 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 964 LIH 11:31 → LAX 20:01 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1612 United Flight history →	LIH 22:00	LAX 06:32	15%	5%	0.6%	97%worse than usual
UA 1296 United Flight history →	LIH 13:01	LAX 21:40	16%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 435 Delta Flight history →	LIH 20:31	LAX 05:00	17%	8%	0.8%	92%
AA 286 American Flight history →	LIH 22:25	LAX 07:04	20%	8%	0.6%	88%
AA 266 American Flight history →	LIH 13:19	LAX 22:00	22%	7%	0.6%	84%
AS 964 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 11:31	LAX 20:01	29%	6%	0.8%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LIH 19:10 → HNL 19:50WN 664	1h 00m Honolulu	HNL 20:50 → LAX 05:15 +1WN 4082	7h 05m	87%	76%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 24m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	7h 20m	96%	71%
United Details →	LIH 13:17 → SFO 21:32UA 2111	1h 05m San Francisco	SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179	8h 02m	91%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON