Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 19:10, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2523 Southwest Flight history →	LIH 21:10	OAK 05:20	8%	2%	0.6%	97%
AS 968 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 13:06	OAK 21:16	20%	4%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LIH 19:10 → HNL 19:50WN 664	1h 40m Honolulu	HNL 21:30 → OAK 05:35 +1WN 1928	7h 25m	100%	88%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	2h 46m Kahului	OGG 13:02 → OAK 21:00AS 924	8h 33m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 16m Honolulu	HNL 12:15 → OAK 20:25AS 848	9h 03m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	1h 37m San Diego	SAN 21:01 → OAK 22:41AS 2285 · flown by Horizon	8h 55m	93%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON