Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2515 at 13:50 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2515 LIH 13:50 → OGG 14:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 1260 LIH 14:30 → OGG 15:19 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2515 Southwest Flight history →	LIH 13:50	OGG 14:45	15%	3%	0.6%	95%
AS 1040 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:27	OGG 10:16	19%	3%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
AS 1150 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:30	OGG 11:19	22%	3%	0.7%	87%
AS 1260 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 14:30	OGG 15:19	29%	5%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON