Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 884 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:23	PDX 20:48	23%	6%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 09m Honolulu	HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:17AS 840	7h 17m	95%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:34 → HNL 18:11AS 1134	3h 28m Honolulu	HNL 21:39 → PDX 06:11 +1AS 880	9h 37m	99%	78%
United Details →	LIH 13:17 → SFO 21:32UA 2111	1h 20m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	8h 33m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 12:31 → SEA 21:21AS 234	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	8h 51m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:31 → LAX 20:01AS 964	1h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 21:35 → PDX 23:56AS 207	9h 25m	93%	74%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 23m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 28m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 20:03 → HNL 20:40AS 1164	59m Honolulu	HNL 21:39 → PDX 06:11 +1AS 880	7h 08m	71%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON