Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 19:10, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 22% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 684 American Flight history →	LIH 21:05	PHX 06:10	15%	6%	0.7%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LIH 19:10 → HNL 19:50WN 664	1h 10m Honolulu	HNL 21:00 → PHX 05:55 +1WN 2277	7h 45m	100%	89%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	2h 11m Honolulu	HNL 11:10 → PHX 20:08AS 836	8h 46m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	1h 55m San Diego	SAN 21:19 → PHX 22:39AS 2049 · flown by Horizon	8h 53m	93%	28%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	46m Honolulu	HNL 11:10 → PHX 20:08AS 836	7h 22m	22%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON