Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 11% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 228 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:46	SAN 19:24	26%	6%	1.0%	85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LIH 06:15 → HNL 06:55WN 2508	1h 15m Honolulu	HNL 08:10 → SAN 16:35WN 1938	7h 20m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	LIH 19:10 → HNL 19:50WN 664	1h 35m Honolulu	HNL 21:25 → SAN 05:50 +1WN 512	7h 40m	100%	82%
United Details →	LIH 13:01 → LAX 21:40UA 1296	1h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 22:56 → SAN 23:54UA 594	7h 53m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:34 → HNL 18:11AS 1134	3h 44m Honolulu	HNL 21:55 → SAN 06:32 +1AS 1412	9h 58m	99%	71%
United Details →	LIH 13:17 → SFO 21:32UA 2111	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142	8h 14m	91%	66%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	2h 06m Kahului	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	8h 16m	98%	66%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	54m Honolulu	HNL 07:30 → SAN 16:01AS 892	7h 01m	88%	66%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 40m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 45m	100%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:14 → HNL 11:53AS 1054	46m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	6h 53m	11%	7%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON