Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 375 at 21:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 375 LIH 21:55 → SEA 06:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 234 LIH 12:31 → SEA 21:21 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 375 Delta Flight history →	LIH 21:55	SEA 06:40	16%	6%	1.0%	89%
AS 213 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 22:28	SEA 07:12	21%	7%	0.9%	82%
AS 234 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:31	SEA 21:21	32%	9%	0.8%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LIH 20:45 → HNL 21:23AS 1174	1h 57m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → SEA 08:00 +1AS 900	8h 15m	94%	67%
Alaska Details →	LIH 19:21 → HNL 19:58AS 1154	1h 22m Honolulu	HNL 21:20 → SEA 05:59 +1AS 122	7h 38m	84%	63%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:30 → OGG 11:19AS 1150	1h 36m Kahului	OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25AS 930	7h 55m	95%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON