Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1685 at 22:44 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1685 LIH 22:44 → SFO 06:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 788 LIH 15:43 → SFO 23:56 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1685 United Flight history →	LIH 22:44	SFO 06:56	8%	5%	0.6%	95%
UA 2111 United Flight history →	LIH 13:17	SFO 21:32	14%	6%	0.7%	84%
UA 1299 United Flight history →	LIH 14:31	SFO 22:46	14%	6%	0.7%	91%
AS 788 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 15:43	SFO 23:56	25%	11%	0.8%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LIH 20:45 → HNL 21:23AS 1174	2h 03m Honolulu	HNL 23:26 → SFO 07:31 +1AS 842	7h 46m	95%	70%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	1h 56m Honolulu	HNL 12:20 → SFO 20:28AS 812	7h 42m	97%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON