Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LIH 06:15 → HNL 06:55WN 2508	1h 20m Honolulu	HNL 08:15 → SJC 16:20WN 1940	7h 05m	100%	94%
Southwest Details →	LIH 08:20 → HNL 09:05WN 2509	1h 55m Honolulu	HNL 11:00 → SJC 19:00WN 4994	7h 40m	100%	87%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	1h 51m Kahului	OGG 12:07 → SJC 20:03AS 954	7h 36m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 31m Honolulu	HNL 12:30 → SJC 20:40AS 1411	9h 18m	100%	66%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	3h 01m San Diego	SAN 22:25 → SJC 23:55AS 1624	10h 09m	93%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:30 → OGG 11:19AS 1150	48m Kahului	OGG 12:07 → SJC 20:03AS 954	6h 33m	45%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON