Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:27, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 966 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:48	SMF 19:01	21%	5%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LIH 08:20 → HNL 09:05WN 2509	1h 55m Honolulu	HNL 11:00 → SMF 19:10WN 1942	7h 50m	100%	86%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	1h 11m Kahului	OGG 11:27 → SMF 19:27AS 960	7h 00m	93%	72%
United Details →	LIH 13:17 → SFO 21:32UA 2111	1h 22m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → SMF 23:59UA 1302	7h 42m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	3h 36m Honolulu	HNL 14:00 → SMF 22:09AS 820	9h 23m	100%	67%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	2h 23m San Diego	SAN 21:47 → SMF 23:32AS 1621	9h 46m	93%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON