Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1565 LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3027 LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1565 Delta Flight history →	LIT 05:25	ATL 07:59	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 1396 Delta Flight history →	LIT 06:47	ATL 09:25	5%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 3033 Delta Flight history →	LIT 09:27	ATL 12:05	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 3040 Delta Flight history →	LIT 11:50	ATL 14:28	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1347 Delta Flight history →	LIT 13:34	ATL 16:16	9%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 3025 Delta Flight history →	LIT 19:00	ATL 21:50	10%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 3027 Delta Flight history →	LIT 15:59	ATL 18:42	11%	3%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON