Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2516 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2516 Southwest Flight history →	LIT 08:10	BNA 09:20	6%	2%	0.5%	93%
WN 4301 Southwest Flight history →	LIT 16:40	BNA 17:50	25%	5%	0.5%	47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BNA 10:10DL 1155	4h 45m	99%	90%
United Details →	LIT 07:20 → ORD 09:35UA 5501 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 12:29 → BNA 14:14UA 3634 · flown by Republic	6h 54m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	4h 43m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	LIT 05:40 → DAL 06:45WN 2517	1h 35m Dallas	DAL 08:20 → BNA 10:10WN 434	4h 30m	96%	87%
United Details →	LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 08m Houston	IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318	6h 57m	97%	84%
American Details →	LIT 05:03 → CLT 08:12AA 3404 · flown by Envoy	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → BNA 12:02AA 5082 · flown by PSA	6h 59m	100%	84%
American Details →	LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → BNA 13:30AA 3047	6h 21m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	4h 36m	97%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LIT 14:13 → ORD 16:18AA 3398 · flown by Envoy	53m Chicago	ORD 17:11 → BNA 18:54AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	4h 41m	72%	55%
United Details →	LIT 11:13 → ORD 13:15UA 4410 · flown by GoJet	57m Chicago	ORD 14:12 → BNA 15:57UA 1928	4h 44m	66%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON