Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3404 LIT 05:03 → CLT 08:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3633 LIT 18:40 → CLT 21:50 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3404 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 05:03	CLT 08:12	7%	3%	0.8%	96%
AA 4158 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 07:09	CLT 10:18	10%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 4146 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 13:24	CLT 16:33	12%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 6228 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 09:20	CLT 12:34	13%	6%	0.8%	79%
AA 3633 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 18:40	CLT 21:50	17%	3%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON