Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3630 at 06:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3630 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 06:00	DCA 09:29	6%	3%	0.7%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LIT 06:01 → DFW 07:40AA 3364 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177	5h 41m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 02m	97%	86%
American Details →	LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42AA 3656 · flown by Envoy	2h 03m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic	6h 28m	96%	85%
American Details →	LIT 05:03 → CLT 08:12AA 3404 · flown by Envoy	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → DCA 12:59AA 5527 · flown by PSA	6h 56m	100%	83%
United Details →	LIT 07:20 → ORD 09:35UA 5501 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752	7h 32m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	LIT 08:10 → BNA 09:20WN 2516	1h 55m Nashville	BNA 11:15 → DCA 14:00WN 4562	4h 50m	98%	81%
United Details →	LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 00m Houston	IAH 09:47 → DCA 13:57UA 2670	5h 52m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737	4h 55m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON