Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1081 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1081 LIT 09:00 → DEN 10:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 5429 LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1081 United Flight history →	LIT 09:00	DEN 10:24	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 4686 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 13:35	DEN 15:04	13%	6%	0.6%	88%
WN 2518 Southwest Flight history →	LIT 15:45	DEN 17:00	20%	4%	0.6%	65%
UA 5429 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 16:39	DEN 18:25	25%	6%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON