Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3364 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3364 LIT 06:01 → DFW 07:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 3631 LIT 19:43 → DFW 21:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3364 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 06:01	DFW 07:40	6%	3%	0.8%	100%
AA 3632 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 11:34	DFW 13:08	9%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 3628 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 09:06	DFW 10:43	12%	4%	0.8%	77%
AA 3641 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 07:31	DFW 09:12	12%	4%	0.8%	79%
AA 3636 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 13:51	DFW 15:25	15%	4%	0.8%	74%
AA 3635 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 18:53	DFW 20:30	16%	5%	0.9%	75%
AA 4008 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 17:38	DFW 19:14	19%	5%	0.8%	61%
AA 3631 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 19:43	DFW 21:18	19%	5%	0.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON