tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4403 at 11:25, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4403 Southwest Flight history → LIT 11:25 LAS 12:35 12% 3% 0.5% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LIT 05:40 → DAL 06:45WN 2517 2h 00m Dallas DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695 5h 55m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 35m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 08m Houston IAH 10:55 → LAS 12:14UA 1799 7h 09m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 15m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → LIT 09:28 → IAH 11:15UA 4066 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 09m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → LIT 07:20 → ORD 09:35UA 5501 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Chicago ORD 11:00 → LAS 13:05UA 2440 7h 45m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 6h 51m 95% 78%
SouthwestDetails → LIT 08:10 → BNA 09:20WN 2516 3h 05m Nashville BNA 12:25 → LAS 14:15WN 2407 8h 05m 100% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON