Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4656 at 07:01, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4656 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LIT 07:01	LGA 11:00	13%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 4960 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LIT 07:11	LGA 11:05	30%	14%	4.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	6h 17m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	7h 03m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	LIT 05:40 → DAL 06:45WN 2517	1h 45m Dallas	DAL 08:30 → LGA 12:50WN 3664	6h 10m	96%	81%
American Details →	LIT 06:00 → DCA 09:29AA 3630 · flown by Envoy	2h 15m Washington	DCA 11:44 → LGA 13:08AA 4645 · flown by Republic	6h 08m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	5h 23m	96%	78%
American Details →	LIT 06:01 → DFW 07:40AA 3364 · flown by Envoy	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → LGA 13:59AA 3053	6h 58m	100%	77%
American Details →	LIT 05:03 → CLT 08:12AA 3404 · flown by Envoy	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 11:39 → LGA 13:35AA 2033	7h 32m	100%	76%
United Details →	LIT 07:20 → ORD 09:35UA 5501 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 12:00 → LGA 15:23UA 2267	7h 03m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON