Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3656 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3656 LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 5382 LIT 14:12 → ORD 16:27 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3656 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 06:31	ORD 08:42	13%	4%	0.9%	78%
UA 5501 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 07:20	ORD 09:35	15%	7%	1.1%	82%
AA 3625 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 10:29	ORD 12:32	15%	5%	0.9%	81%
AA 3398 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 14:13	ORD 16:18	22%	6%	0.9%	77%
AA 4062 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 19:35	ORD 21:45	23%	6%	1.1%	59%
UA 5382 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 14:12	ORD 16:27	25%	12%	1.5%	66%
UA 4410 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	LIT 11:13	ORD 13:15	32%	15%	2.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON