Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 09:50, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3335 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 08:24	PHX 09:37	11%	3%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LIT 05:40 → DAL 06:45WN 2517	2h 05m Dallas	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	5h 40m	99%	86%
American Details →	LIT 05:03 → CLT 08:12AA 3404 · flown by Envoy	1h 29m Charlotte	CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986	8h 01m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 38m	99%	83%
American Details →	LIT 06:01 → DFW 07:40AA 3364 · flown by Envoy	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	5h 28m	100%	82%
United Details →	LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir	53m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	5h 29m	93%	81%
American Details →	LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	7h 47m	97%	80%
United Details →	LIT 09:28 → IAH 11:15UA 4066 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → PHX 15:10UA 1238	7h 42m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	6h 51m	96%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LIT 19:35 → ORD 21:45AA 4062 · flown by Envoy	50m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → PHX 00:14 +1AA 2786	6h 39m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON