tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 45m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 03m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir 58m Houston IAH 09:45 → SLC 11:59UA 756 5h 54m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 8h 51m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → LIT 09:00 → DEN 10:24UA 1081 1h 16m Denver DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963 5h 13m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → LIT 07:20 → ORD 09:35UA 5501 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Chicago ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955 9h 02m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653 9h 12m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → LIT 05:03 → CLT 08:12AA 3404 · flown by Envoy 48m Charlotte CLT 09:00 → SLC 11:20AA 2602 7h 17m 91% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25UA 5429 · flown by SkyWest 58m Denver DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769 5h 17m 75% 55%
SouthwestDetails → LIT 15:45 → DEN 17:00WN 2518 50m Denver DEN 17:50 → SLC 19:35WN 1734 4h 50m 74% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON