tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4207 at 13:30, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4207 Southwest Flight history → MAF 13:30 AUS 14:35 18% 6% 0.7% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MAF 05:15 → DAL 06:35WN 1959 1h 00m Dallas DAL 07:35 → AUS 08:40WN 1265 3h 25m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → MAF 06:05 → DEN 07:00UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456 5h 10m 94% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MAF 06:05 → DEN 06:55WN 2522 3h 05m Denver DEN 10:00 → AUS 13:20WN 2263 7h 15m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → MAF 08:30 → DFW 09:57AA 3343 · flown by Envoy 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MAF 05:00 → IAH 06:37UA 6351 · flown by Mesa 58m Houston IAH 07:35 → AUS 08:39UA 2016 3h 39m 93% 83%
AmericanDetails → MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy 1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:41 → AUS 08:52AA 4992 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → MAF 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 2281 3h 37m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 6h 12m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → MAF 11:45 → DFW 13:10AA 3651 · flown by Envoy 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:16 → AUS 16:21AA 3400 · flown by Envoy 4h 36m 96% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON