Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1959 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1959 MAF 05:15 → DAL 06:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 57 MAF 18:35 → DAL 19:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1959 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 05:15	DAL 06:35	3%	1%	0.9%	96%
WN 29 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 11:30	DAL 12:50	7%	2%	0.8%	92%
WN 1277 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 14:40	DAL 16:00	16%	6%	0.8%	79%
WN 57 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 18:35	DAL 19:55	23%	10%	0.8%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON