Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2522 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2522 MAF 06:05 → DEN 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest UA 5472 MAF 17:23 → DEN 18:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2522 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 06:05	DEN 06:55	3%	1%	0.7%	98%
UA 5794 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 06:05	DEN 07:00	6%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 5822 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 07:58	DEN 08:55	12%	6%	0.7%	90%
UA 4807 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 13:45	DEN 14:47	15%	7%	0.8%	85%
UA 5472 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 17:23	DEN 18:25	28%	9%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON