Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4896 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4896 MAF 07:15 → HOU 08:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2526 MAF 18:05 → HOU 19:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4896 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 07:15	HOU 08:45	4%	2%	1.7%	95%
WN 2524 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 09:50	HOU 11:20	6%	3%	1.8%	86%
WN 2525 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 14:35	HOU 16:05	17%	6%	1.7%	58%
WN 2526 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 18:05	HOU 19:40	20%	7%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON